Amit is a good kid - so is his Italian friend Arny (whom I know personally). Good younger folks who follow this stock daily

The issue is - will Palantir become what Karp and these guys say it will? Will AI rule the IT world and will Palantir leverage its position of 20 years of knowledge in LLMs to conquer it - (currently Karp says they're "monopolists" who completely dominate the market - he says that any other company is essentially shit compared to them).

I think no one can answer this - no one knows.
We can only wait, follow the events and discover it for ourselves.

Arny Trezzi’s analysis is top notch

Thinking out loud here but there might be a good swing trade opportunity here in the next few weeks.  Next month the S&P 500 rebalances and with Palantir being technically eligible it should pump before the announcement which should be after the close on Friday June 7th. (It pumped last time)

In the meantime the stock may have support in the form of share buybacks. We recently learned that they bought $9M back in Q1 and it was reported that they bought 500k shares. That averages to $18 which means the bulk had to have been bought before they reported Q4 earnings cause it went over $20 then and hasn’t dipped below that since. They still have $991,000,000 authorized to buy stock which at sub $20 would be 50M +/- shares.  

*not financial advice*

Very nice and informative from you - appreciate it much.

YouTube content creators Arny Trezzi and Amit Kukreja got to interview Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar at a recent AI expo. Shyam touched on some interesting stuff including the Fed Start program which was kind of overshadowed by the AIP boot camps in terms of coverage.  Interview with Shyam starts around the 50 minute mark.

Seen it yesterday, thanks for posting it here - I had spoken with Arny about this interview days ago (I AM Italian from Italy, born here, grew up there, moved back here 15 years ago).
So it is relatively easy for me to interface with Arny (also because I do have an IT past, college degree and industry experience etc.)

Great delivery from both Arny AND Amit - it's a good duo. Arny needs to become more fluent in English (I told him "enunciation, enunciation, enunciation!")

But I digress - the CONTENT is good and thanks again for posting it here!

PS I told Arny about you - it's appreciated.

@Solo_
Thanks
I don’t use Twitter but it’s my understanding that most of Arny’s content starts there. If someone wants to post a link to his account (and Amit's for that matter) they would be good to follow for anyone interested in Palantir.

I didn't use to use Twitter either, I had to start when Trump was banned from it.
I lost 16 accounts from that day, simply for being a conservative.

That being said, I still have a modest access to "X" and these are Amit's account

In the midst of everything, I did buy some $PLTR Palantir today

BIG PODCAST COMING OUT 4:45PM TODAY IN REGARDS TO PALANTIR\uD83D\uDC40\uD83D\uDC40

Will be premiering it live during the market close today

Arny @arny_trezzi & I got to speak to someone special at the AI expo last week… pic.twitter.com/2DAlF4c2ri

amit  (@amitisinvesting) May 14, 2024

... and Arny's

$PLTR today is the day for something B I G.

4:45pm NY time. https://t.co/kFPPfo7xLT

— Arny Trezzi (@arny_trezzi) May 14, 2024

I believe they may have both started on Youtube, that expanded onto Twitter - which is naturally a more immediate platform.

Guardian hit piece on Palantir and the recent AI Expo.
Article

Actually has some interesting info on the expo if you can get past the author’s bleeding heart. The real irony is that CEO Alex Karp has stated repeatedly that his goal is to build products so good that the competition decides not to compete. In terms of their warfare products, the author’s shock and horror would suggest that the goal is being achieved.

Got a chance to read Peter Thiel’s Zero to One. In one of only a few references to Palantir he shed some light on why they don’t have a conventional sales force.
Attached File

Useful as usual thanks

I lived this at two different companies. I was both the main tech guy and the main sales/BD guy for a very complex embedded technology sales cycle. When I went to customers, I always took engineers. When I left both, they tried to replace me with traditional salesmen. Warned the CEOs it wouldn't work. It didn't, and within 3 years, both were done.

Brilliant testament.

As a software engineer myself, I have been a presale (1990s technical term) figure in my younger years (those in-between technical and sales figures that IT invented at some point).

People often don't understand (and can't) the complexity of certain environments, business subjects and technologies.

I’m seeing chatter about a new partnership with Proxet. I’m assuming this is another deal like they have with Accenture to sell their services. Need to dive deeper into this one.

Attached File


The financial influencers have been buzzing about Palantir’s granting of SARs that for all intents and purposes it looks like credit goes to Arny for finding it in the 10-Q.

Attached File


In Q1 they granted employees 44,283,000 stock appreciation rights (SARs) with a five year life, exercise price of $50 and a cap of $20 in appreciation.

What this means:  Employees who were granted the SARs can exercise them if the stock price goes over $50 and be paid the difference up to $20 per share ($70 share price). This is bullish IMO because it gives the employees a vested interest in the share price over the next five years and hopefully means that they’re moving away from stock based compensation.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/palantir-wins-480-million-us-army-deal-maven-prototype-2024-05-29/

All very positive news.

Philosphocial question: at what point does PLTR reach critical mass that the market can't ignore them anymore? Break point in revenue? stock buy backs or other? not meaning being a darling like NVDA but more like a staple of success versus obviously being doubted and kept down or not promoted.

S&P 500 inclusion. They’re eligible.  The committee that makes the decisions can ignore their eligibility for a few quarters for any number of excuses but if they ignored indefinitely S&P would loose legitimacy.

To clarify: I’m bullish on the granting of SARs cause hopefully they’re shifting away from granting options which cause dilution.

Also found in the 10-Q that the $9M they spent on share buybacks wasn’t for 500k shares as I posted, it was actually only 400k which would put the average price at $22.50.  If they’re actively buying at these prices (now) it might be why PLTR is not being drug down by SNOW and CRM which are dropping.

This week has been interesting. Started with an expansion of their partnership with Eaton. Then the $480M Maven / DOD deal. Apparently there’s another government $30M +/- that just posted and we’re learning that over $100M of the Maven deal is payable this year.

This will most likely cause some analysts to up their price targets if not upgrade the stock.  Between that and a potential pump ahead of the S&P’s June rebalancing (believe the list gets posted after the close next Friday) the next week should be interesting.

@procat - I'm grateful (beyond words) for your analyses and for your (shared) enthusiasm for this company. It's the only "speculative" stock I own (and as I said above, been holding it for many, many years).

I mentioned you to Arny (who's a friend I speak via phone from time to time and follow on X (Twitter). He says hello.

See you - here - later,

Fil

@SkiandShoot
After mulling it over for another day I believe the PE ratio could also could end up being what brings the street around. Their high P/E ratio is the cornerstone of any serious PLTR bear argument. It’s high. Everyone knows it. Looking at the numbers though it wouldn’t take much to drop it hard.

Looking at yahoo finance their trailing P/E is currently 181 based on trailing EPS of $0.12. Palantir does has a huge amount of shares outstanding but twelve cents is a small number and as such even small increases can have large impacts on the ratio. Consider this while taking into account we got over $500M between 2 deals this week that no one seemed to see coming.

Looking towards 2025 analyst’s estimates I also see opportunity.  The average EPS estimate for 2024 is $0.33 while the average for 2025 is only $0.39.  Repeatedly it’s been shown that most of the analysts that cover Palantir don’t understand the company. The only ones that seem to have a clue are Dan Ives (Wedbush) and Mariana Perez (Bank of America), both of whom are very bullish. (Outperform and Buy respectively).  I suspect these estimates will be revised up and / or beat.

Here’s the problem though:  let’s say they got the PE ratio down to 40. At today’s price that would be TTM earnings of $0.54.  At that point (probably before that point) S&P inclusion will have occurred. It could no longer be ignored. With the money that will have to pour in due to how much money is tied to the index the price will rise thus PE ratio goes back up.

Looks like an effort to start pumping possible S&P inclusion has begun.


Checked the numbers and back on 5/12 when I posed about a possible swing trade the stock was at $20.60.  We’re up just over $1 / 5%+/- since then. Friday’s price action should be interesting, short of any negative macro stuff between now and then I suspect it will go up more.

Dan Ives on Palantir. Starts around 5:45

30-40USD valuation soon, he hinted.
Will see